Five French clubs in the Champions League from next season, it's possible!

If French clubs continue to obtain good results in the European Cup, they could offer themselves five places in the Champions League from next season.

The excellent results of French clubs, all of whom are still in the race in Europe after the group stages, could well offer France a fifth place in the Champions League. From next year, with the reform of European competitions and the increase in C1 from 32 to 36 clubs, France will obtain a fourth place in C1 via the championship. But above all, an additional place will be reserved for the two countries with the best UEFA coefficient from last season: a reward to which French clubs can claim.

While France is currently only sixth in points on the UEFA index this season, its total of 11,583 points at the end of the group stage is actually very high, almost as many as at the end of the last season (12,583). New positive results could really involve France in the fight for this additional place in the Champions League.

How many points should French clubs score to be in the “top 2” of European nations this season? The answer is actually quite simple: 19 points. No nation has ever finished higher than second place with a total of 19 points or more. France is therefore currently 7.5 points short of securing a fifth place in the Champions League. An achievable performance?

By adding the points obtained thanks to the results of the matches and the bonus points accumulated in each past round, we can obtain an estimate of the performances necessary for French clubs to score 7.5 points and win this fifth place in the Champions League. And the scenario is not completely unrealistic: for example, it would be necessary for Paris Saint-Germain to reach the final of the Champions League and for Lille to win the Conference League, or vice versa, and for OM and RC Lens to go as far as 'in the semi-finals of the Europa League.

All based on the probable hypothesis that Stade Rennais and Toulouse will no longer score any points, because they will respectively face AC Milan and Benfica Lisbon in the Europa League play-offs, two a priori much superior opponents. A nice surprise during these meetings could therefore even bring additional points, as well as a victory for a French club in the Europa League for example. Note that the results during the Europa League and Conference League play-off matches do not award points; but a bonus point is given to the one who qualifies for the round of 16 of the Europa League.

If Toulouse and Rennes inherited tough opponents in the Europa League play-off, RC Lens and OM are slight favorites against SC Friborg and Shakhtar Donetsk, like PSG against Real Sociedad in the C1 round of 16. Finally, Lille is one of the serious contenders for victory in the Conference League, which is not negligible because it earns almost as many points as the other competitions.

Here, in detail, is the scenario studied:

This estimate is made by counting a victory and a draw during the double confrontations where the French clubs would qualify, and a defeat and a draw in the event of elimination.

As a reminder, here is the scale applied to calculate the UEFA nations index:

All points indicated are to be divided by the number of clubs participating in the European Cups for each country, therefore 6 for France.