The president is due to give a speech on Europe this Thursday from the Sorbonne. But will this entry into the campaign really be an asset for his camp? Doubts are allowed.
Forty-six days before the 2024 European elections, nothing is decided yet. But in the polls, the gap between the National Rally list, led by Jordan Bardella, and that of Renaissance, with Valérie Hayer as leader, is glaring. In the latest update of the Ifop-Fiducial survey carried out for Le Figaro, LCI and Sud Radio, the Macronist camp, if it is nibbling for the first time in a long time a little of the ground, increasing to 17.5% of the intentions of vote, remains far behind the RN and its 31%.
So, will Emmanuel Macron's big speech on Europe scheduled for this Thursday, April 25 at the Sorbonne change the situation? If the Élysée assures that this is only "a speech by a head of state", as Le Parisien relays, many people see it as an entry into the campaign of the President of the Republic. Daily in the capital, one of the confidants of the tenant of the Élysée affirms that Emmanuel Macron would be “convinced that he will change the situation”.
A card from the Macron camp also assures him, the President of the Republic wishes to “repeat the blow of 2019, when he relaunched the campaign of Nathalie Loiseau”. But does he still have the ability? “I don’t think so,” confides this same source, while a supporter mentions “the wear and tear of power.” Acknowledging to 20 Minutes that in 2019, Emmanuel Macron had “made it possible to save the furniture”, with 22.42% of the votes against 23.34% for the RN, according to figures from the Ministry of the Interior, a Renaissance MP notes today that “there is no longer this hype that followed 2017” and even speaks of “a very strong rejection of the president among the electorate”.
This is evidenced by this Ifop-Fiducial survey published by Sud Radio on Monday April 15. According to him, 74% of French people say they are dissatisfied with the action of the President of the Republic, or three quarters of French people. Still speaking to 20 Minutes, a member confides that she has "no illusions", while the member of the Democratic Movement, Erwan Balanant, points to "an election which is arriving at mid-term" and during which "some could be tempted to sanction the president".
On the opposition side, La France insoumise deplores a double standard concerning Jean-Luc Mélenchon's banned conference, but also accuses Macronie of using "the means of the State to campaign", as notably affirmed on X the LFI deputy Bastien Lachaud. The camp of the third man in this election, Raphaël Glucksmann, sees this speech as a movement of "panic", according to a close friend of the head of the list echoed by Le Figaro. And he points out: “The Macronists thought they could campaign by presenting themselves as the only pro-Europeans. We managed to kick in the door.”
Finally, at the National Rally, the arrival of Emmanuel Macron on the front of the stage would almost delight as the objective is to make this election an “anti-Macron referendum”. One thing is certain, in the event of defeat, and even more so if it is marked, the president will emerge weakened from this battle. And the results will not be without consequences for the rest of the five-year term...
