This secret poll which gives the RN the majority in the National Assembly

Carried out in December 2023, this survey commissioned by Les Républicains credited the RN with an unprecedented score in the event of early legislative elections.

Last December, in the midst of the immigration law, the Republicans commissioned a survey in order to "take the pulse of the country", the entourage of the boss of LR, Éric Ciotti, confirmed today to L'Obs. The objective was to have an idea of ​​the voting intentions of the French in the event of early legislative elections, and with that, to realize the benefits/risks that the party would take by approving one of the motions of censure tabled by the 'opposition.

While the survey was initially intended to remain "secret", it has now been propelled to the forefront, in the middle of the campaign for the European elections which will be held next June. And the results are unprecedented under the Fifth Republic! Indeed, in the event of the dissolution of the National Assembly and new legislative elections, the National Rally could emerge as the big winner from this affair, with 243 to 305 elected deputies, suggests BFMTV which confirms the information from the weekly. Jordan Bardella's troops could thus count on an average of 278 seats at the Bourbon Palace, not far from the majority set at 289. Figures which should delight the far-right party. But according to the continuous news channel, Marine Le Pen would have called internally for the greatest caution on this subject.

Still according to the survey carried out between December 8 and 13, if the intentions of the French were favorable to the National Rally, this would be to the detriment, of course, of other parties. On the front line, the presidential camp which would go from 246 deputies elected in 2022 to an average of 135 (117 to 165). Behind, the Nupes would also suffer a big setback, obtaining on average 68 seats, compared to 150 during the previous legislative elections. As for the Republicans, they would manage to save the furniture by winning between 44 to 60 deputies, or an average of 53 seats, compared to 62 in 2022.