"there was a preventive of forest to be burned down." "The fires have been lit in the sky." "What do you mean, climate change, take a look at this chart." There are a lot of alternatives around on the forest fires in Australia. Sometimes, though, the information is not correct, but sometimes the critics have a point. But you have to have the proper follow-up, connect, explain experts at NU.nl.
We have two experts, a number of alternative explanations for the fires. Cathelijne Stoof, a bosbrandenonderzoeker at the University of Wageningen, the netherlands. Bart van den Hurk, it is klimaatonderzoeker of a knowledge institute, Deltares, Vu University amsterdam and specialized in the relationship between climate change and the drying out of the soil.
Mistake 1: There are 183 people were arrested for arson < / p> This is a misunderstanding, we can solve for the number is not correct. This is to let the Australian police know. In this figure, among others, in cases brought by people who have been arrested prior to the current bosbrandseizoen started, and for many other crimes have been arrested.
Despite this, there was a fire always from the first flame. What is the role of a malicious act in the present bosbrandencrisis in Australia? Cathelijne Stoof explained that other factors are more important.
"In large, natural fires are very often to blame is sought. But then you're going to ignore the fact that, for large fires, three things are required: the first to burn, plenty of fuel and the right weather conditions. These weather conditions include drought and heat, thus drying the plants, and it is, therefore, a lot of the fuel available."
"That is the first tiny flames, there will always be so. However, in a desert, not a brand. And when the forest is wet enough to spread it's not too far, or fall to check it out."
Why is it that the fires of this year are so intense in Australia? Misconception 2: when connecting, this had never happened < / p> Stove said that, in addition to the so-called brandstofbeperkende measures may be over-estimated. These measures include, for example, in the construction of fire lanes (strips, no to trees and shrubs or carry out preventative burning off of the undergrowth of the forest.
"It's a common misconception that the fire escapes or pre-emptive burning undergrowth, a fierce forest fire to stop." The sparks blew over the top of them, and also the grass may be the fire to pass. "These measures are designed to slow down, so that the fire departments in those places has a chance to be in the vuurfront to stop it."
"But from what I hear from colleagues in Australia, it is under these climatic conditions not only have such an effect. In the end, just as quickly, fire lanes, and patches of woodland in which the undergrowth is preventive, has been burned to the ground as if by a natural area. That is due to the extreme weather conditions: the plants were dried out, so it's fire strikes, anywhere access."
Mistake 3: just Put more fire in the
< / p> Stove said they have not even come as a surprise that people think that they are burning at all put out to be. If a fire of a certain intensity has been reached, it is simply not technically possible.
"yes, There are tables which illustrate it. The water tank of a fire truck, or blusvliegtuig, then, is the proverbial drop in the bucket. You can use it locally as a bit of a slow down in strategic places to protect, but not to extinguish the fire."
please also See: What is the cause of the devastating bush fires in Australia? Misconception 4: Climate change leads to less precipitation
Play the climate change remains to be seen, or do not have a role to play in the Australian bush fires?
The Australian government says it is resolutely not, but the scientists are telling a different story: burn, fall, along with the recordhitte, and a very severe drought. That is, in part, explained by natural variation, and in part due to the global warming.
even more to climate change than the drought? Social media is coming of confusing graphs and charts is over. For example, the picture below is that of the rainfall in Australia is decreasing. And yes, that chart is wrong.
Bart van den Hurk: "Neerslagtrends in Australia are in fact very small in size and can be greatly influenced by the natural fluctuations of the temperature of the neighbouring seas. As you can see in the chart, with a massive peak in 2010, when, due to a natural phenomenon, La Niña-all inclusive is enormous with a lot of rain fell in the state of Queensland."
It is true that the average rainfall does not decrease due to climate change. However, increased climate change, drought through increased evaporation. (Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology).
"But it is, after all, a common misconception is that climate change, droughts are caused by a decrease in precipitation. Also, in areas with increased rain can increase the risk of drought will increase, due to an increase in the evaporation rates. That is going to be substantially increased by the temperature increase, as long as there is soil moisture to evaporate. As for the rain, for a period of time is not provided, it will suddenly be a powerful force."
"It is, moreover, in this region, one area which is structurally less rain to get a result of climate change. That is, it is in the west coast of Australia and the adjoining part of the Indian Ocean. That is the pattern we see, is exactly also a this year. In the climatology, it is called the "positive phase" in the Indian Oceaandipool. We will refer to it as a natural variation, but it really seems as though this variation more often in the current direction, due to the strike. So, too, are all along that route, such droughts in the future, more likely to occur in Australia as a result of global warming."
the Dutch in Australia, " Dome of the water delivered to my house,' Misconception 5: In Australia, it is not getting warmer.
< / p> social media is circulating the charts that would demonstrate that Australia is not warming up. This is often in order to have observations in one season only for a short time, or for only one station.
"It is very dangerous if you are in a climate where you experience these changes, and where the rainfall is also seasonal," says Van den Hurk. "And that also lends itself to manipulation. You can use a chart to differentiate between a peak and a valley, and then to argue that the trend goes in the other direction."
out Of the Squat refers to the temperature, therefore, the long-term measurements from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology since 1910, the average temperature for the whole of Australia. These measurements show that Australia is already a 1.5 ° c is heated and that the highest temperatures in the last few years, in some cases. Global warming has been faster than the wereldgemiddeld.
"The temperatures in december, we are now in Australia, have become more and more extreme," says Van den Hurk. "Which is heard in an environment which is 3 degrees warmer: it's really extreme temperature deviations. And, as a result, there is really not a single drop of water in the ground is over there."
Australia: you have just experienced the future.
AvatarAuteured_hawkinsMoment of plaatsen21:46 pm - January 6, 2020 Mistake 6: Wow, it's raining in Sydney, australia. It is in the pastit is). Australia is a big one. And, just as we in the Netherlands learned after the droogterecord in the summer of 2018 and beyond: one storm does not put an end to the drought. Australia has, for the most part, the summer is still ahead of us, and after a very long drought, there is a long-term a lot of rain is needed for soil moisture and ground water has been restored.
"in spite of the fact that the vegetation has been burned away," says Stew. "That may be so, no rain and more to capture." And some of it is in the soil, appears to have been damaged by the heat of the fire. If the soil moisture is not a good answer, it may rain, so washed away by the rivers, and the high moisture deficit in the soil will not readily be replaced.
See also the Creator of the iconic kangoeroefoto left part of the road: 'the Bottom is really not a pleasant thing,' < / p>
