Super Tuesday: Could Trump lose key primary stage?

American voters in around fifteen states are voting this Tuesday, March 5, 2024, as part of “Super Tuesday” to nominate the candidate of each party for the presidential election.

Super Tuesday: Could Trump lose key primary stage?

American voters in around fifteen states are voting this Tuesday, March 5, 2024, as part of “Super Tuesday” to nominate the candidate of each party for the presidential election. On the Republican side, Donald Trump is the big favorite.

It is the most important voting day in the United States after the presidential election. This Tuesday, March 5, 2024, like every first Tuesday of March of each presidential year, “Super Tuesday” is being held. It allows voters in fifteen states to nominate the candidate who will represent the Democrats and Republicans in the presidential election next November. Alabama, Alaska (Republican Party only), Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia are therefore organizing a primary or a caucus this Tuesday. The territory of American Samoa and Iowa will do the same, but only for the Democratic Party.

To be nominated as a party candidate in the United States, a candidate for the nomination must obtain a certain number of votes. Nearly a third of the delegates needed for the nomination of the Republican candidate as a Democrat are at stake this Tuesday. In the American electoral system, depending on the number of votes collected during "Super Tuesday", candidates will therefore be allocated a certain number of delegates. These delegates then commit to defending and voting for their official nomination.

The number of delegates at stake for this Super Tuesday 2024 is important, but not enough for a candidate to win the nomination today. 1,420 Democrats are affiliated out of 4,672 and 865 Republicans out of 4,672. On the Democratic side, president-candidate Joe Biden is almost guaranteed to be invested. No serious opposition faces him, this Tuesday's elections are a formality for the 81-year-old man. Among the Republicans, the Trump-Haley duel will animate this day of Super Tuesday despite the title of ultra favorite of the ex-president.

In the conservative camp, the big favorite Donald Trump has only one opponent left, Nikki Haley, 52 years old. This moderate Republican, however, remains behind the former President of the United States. Trump came out on top in every poll except in Washington. According to FiveThirtyEight, the billionaire is credited with more than 75% of voting intentions. So, the chances of Donald Trump losing the primary are extremely slim. Nikki Haley's main donors, the Koch brothers, even withdrew. Further proof of Donald Trump's control over this election and the abysmal difficulty of his competitors to exist in front of him.

Despite successive failures, Nikki Haley never withdrew her candidacy. Could it appear as “Plan B” in the event of Donald Trump’s conviction? The hypothesis is very unlikely to be verified. In reality, the American Constitution puts forward three conditions to qualify for an election: to be a citizen, to be 35 years old and to have resided in the United States for at least 14 years. Despite all the charges against him, Donald Trump could well be elected "even if he found himself in prison" indicates Frederick T. Davis, former federal prosecutor at Noel York, member of the Paris and New York Bars. York in the columns of Capital. If he is found "guilty" of one or more offenses before January 20, 2025, when he will be sworn in as the new President of the United States (if he is re-elected), it is even possible that he or in prison at that time,” he explains in the magazine Le Club des juristes.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, however, prefers not to admit defeat early. With the 40% of votes collected in her state and in New Hampshire, the nomination of Donald Trump "is not exactly a coronation" she judges. In fact, the latter's bitter defeats demonstrate Donald Trump's considerable lead. Haley even lost in the state where she was governor, South Carolina. Nikki Haley's candidacy, if it does not overshadow Donald Trump this year, could therefore serve to prepare the ground for the next presidential election in 2028.

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