European elections: towards a rout of the Macronists?

The latest Elabe poll places the National Rally far ahead of the majority list for the next European election.

European elections: towards a rout of the Macronists?

The latest Elabe poll places the National Rally far ahead of the majority list for the next European election. The shadow of a pair of pants hangs over Macronie.

Macronie in the rearview mirror. The list of Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons, which still does not have a head of list even if the names of Clément Beaune, Julien Denormandie or Valérie Hayer come up insistently, is in trouble. Indeed, the figures from the latest poll carried out by Elabe for La Tribune Dimanche with a view to the European election on June 9 place the presidential majority in great difficulty behind the National Rally.

The Renaissance list is credited with 16.5% of voting intentions. The National Rally list, led by its president Jordan Bardella, benefits from 27.5% of the votes. That’s a delay of 11 points for Macronie. A month ago, the majority list received 18% of the polls. The change of Prime Minister and the appointment of Gabriel Attal does not seem to have had a positive effect on the next European elections for the camp of President Emmanuel Macron.

Renaissance is losing ground in particular among retirees. 23% of them planned to vote for the majority list in January 2024 and 19% for the RN. A month later, the trend reversed. 25% of those over 65 favor Macronie, while 26% of respondents will slip a Rally ballot into the ballot box next June. Alarming figures for the majority less than 4 months before the European elections.

In detail, this Elabe study therefore places the RN list at the top of voting intentions (27.5%), the majority list comes in second place (16.5%), then on the third step of the podium, the EELV list led by Marie Toussaint (9.5%). The socialist list led by Raphaël Glucksmann is credited with 9% voting intentions, just like Manon Aubry for LFI (9%). The list of Republicans led by François-Xavier Bellamy is slightly behind (8%).

In total, the four left-wing forces constitute a bloc of 30% of voting intentions. Please note, as the president of the Elabe institute, Bernard Sananes, reveals in the columns of La Tribune, "among those surveyed, only 47% say they are interested in this prospect". The next European elections therefore do not yet appear to be a key deadline and in the absence of a charismatic figure within the majority, the President of the Republic himself could well find himself as the most weakened in Macronie.

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